{"id":"savings-path-sampling-algorithms","title":"Algorithmic Compute-Savings in Path-Finding and Sampling Methods","subtitle":"Surrogate path methods, freezing and growing strings, single-ended searches, and replica economization.","category":"references","tags":["literature-review","savings-stack","path-finding","sampling","algorithms"],"source":"articles/lit-review/savings-path-sampling-algorithms.md","lang":"en","words":2429,"readMinutes":11,"toc":[{"depth":2,"text":"1. Executive result","id":"1-executive-result"},{"depth":2,"text":"2. Savings table","id":"2-savings-table"},{"depth":2,"text":"3. Proven vs claimed","id":"3-proven-vs-claimed"},{"depth":2,"text":"4. Openings for Lupine","id":"4-openings-for-lupine"}],"html":"<blockquote>\n<p><strong>Provenance:</strong> explore agent <code>agent-19</code> (director-commissioned deep research, swarm of 7, 2026-07-21) — materialized verbatim, then editorially corrected only to replace the retracted 624/132 union-anchor figures with the reproducible primary-record values (558/154). Quantitative literature claims are as reported by the research agent from sources it accessed; see citations inline. Citation-verification pass pending before any external publication.</p>\n</blockquote>\n<h1 id=\"chapter-digest-algorithmic-compute-savings-in-path-finding-and-sampling-methods\">Chapter digest: Algorithmic compute-savings in path-finding and sampling methods</h1><p>Evidence cut: 2026-07-21. Scope 2015–2026 (two foundational pre-2015 papers flagged where cited). All sources below were accessed this session; each entry states whether I read the full text or only the abstract.</p>\n<h2 id=\"1-executive-result\">1. Executive result</h2><ul>\n<li><strong>Surrogate-model path methods deliver the largest, most replicated savings: 5–25× fewer true energy/force evaluations than classical (CI-)NEB, and ~9× fewer than the plain dimer.</strong> Garrido Torres et al. (SUNCAT/Stanford) report ML-NEB requiring &quot;approximately 5–25 times fewer function calls&quot; than FIRE/LBFGS/MDMin NEB on metal-surface benchmarks, with cost <em>independent of image count</em> where classical NEB cost grows steeply with images (<a href=\"https://ar5iv.labs.arxiv.org/html/1811.08022\">arXiv:1811.08022v1</a>, full text read). Goswami &amp; Jónsson&#39;s OT-GP dimer cuts median electronic-structure calls from 254 → 28 on a 238-molecule benchmark and halves wall-time vs the previous GP-dimer (<a href=\"https://arxiv.org/html/2510.06030v1\">arXiv:2510.06030v1</a>, full text read).</li>\n<li><strong>Freezing/growing-string methods get a molecular TS guess in ~20–90 gradient calls total (guess + refinement), roughly an order of magnitude below dense-band NEB; trading band quality for guess quality is the whole game.</strong> Marks et al. measure ~90 total DFT gradient evaluations per TS with conservative FSM settings and 39 with aggressive settings (100% success over 40+ reactions only with internal-coordinate interpolation; LST interpolation fails up to 7/24 cases at aggressive settings) (<a href=\"https://arxiv.org/html/2407.09763v2\">arXiv:2407.09763v2</a>, full text read). Running the FSM growth itself on a fine-tuned GNN removes 72% of the remaining ab-initio calls (28.9 vs 103.7 average) (<a href=\"https://arxiv.org/html/2501.06159v2\">arXiv:2501.06159v2</a>, full text read).</li>\n<li><strong>Single-ended / walking methods (dimer, ART nouveau, DESW/SSW) are cheaper than full bands <em>per saddle found</em> when you don&#39;t need the whole MEP: ~50–200 force calls per event with DFT.</strong> ART nouveau with a rationally seeded start converges a DFT saddle in 50 force evaluations vs 463 for unbiased search (Jay et al. 2022, <a href=\"https://iris.sissa.it/retrieve/da7d4c55-2fe6-406c-aa46-602f3eeb51db/ARTn_Comput_2022.pdf\">DOI 10.1016/j.commatsci.2022.111363</a>, full text read); the Liu group&#39;s CBD TS location is quoted at ~50 energy/force evaluations from a good guess (<a href=\"http://www.lasphub.com/publication/132.pdf\">LASP, WIREs CMS 2019, e1415</a>, full text read).</li>\n<li><strong>Replica economization is real but the biggest factor comes from tempering only the solute: REST2 folds trpcage with 10 replicas where T-REMD needs 48 — a measured ≥9.6× CPU saving</strong> (Wang, Friesner, Berne, <a href=\"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3172817/\">DOI 10.1021/jp204407d</a>, full text read; pre-2015 foundational). Non-reversible PT provably dominates reversible PT and fixes the schedule-optimization problem (<a href=\"https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.02939\">arXiv:1905.02939v4</a>, abstract read).</li>\n<li><strong>For free-energy convergence, OPES-family methods are the current best-verified step beyond metadynamics: ~10× faster exploration than WTMetaD on alanine tetrapeptide, and OneOPES converges binding ΔF in ~100 ns where PT-WTE-MetaD cannot within 250 ns</strong> (<a href=\"https://ar5iv.labs.arxiv.org/html/2201.09950\">arXiv:2201.09950v1</a>, full text read; <a href=\"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10500989/\">DOI 10.1021/acs.jctc.3c00254</a>, full text read). Caveat throughout: cheap exploration (OPES-explore, GaMD, PT) reliably recovers <em>minima</em> but distorts or bypasses the TS region — stated explicitly in the OneOPES paper.</li>\n</ul>\n<h2 id=\"2-savings-table\">2. Savings table</h2><div class=\"table-wrap\"><table><thead><tr>\n<th>Technique</th>\n<th>What cost it removes</th>\n<th>Measured savings factor (system/size context)</th>\n<th>Accuracy cost / failure mode</th>\n<th>Citation (read level)</th>\n<th>Evidence strength</th>\n</tr>\n</thead><tbody><tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\">ML-NEB with GPR surrogate + uncertainty-driven acquisition</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">Per-iteration force calls on all N images; image-count scaling</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">5–25× fewer function calls vs classical NEB optimizers (Au/Al(111), Pt adatom, Pt7 island; Müller-Brown 243→11 calls ≈ 22×). Cost independent of # images</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">GP extrapolation to short-distance/high-force configs degrades it (motivated the 2019 fix); LBFGS/MDMin baselines sometimes fail instead</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (read level)\"><a href=\"https://ar5iv.labs.arxiv.org/html/1811.08022\">arXiv:1811.08022v1</a>; PRL 122, 156001 (2019) (full text)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">strong</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\">GP-NEB with inverse-distance covariance</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">Same as above, more robust</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">&quot;Fewer energy and force evaluations&quot; than 2017 GP-NEB on H₂/Cu(110), H₂O/ice, heptamer island — factor not in abstract</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">[UNVERIFIED factor]: abstract gives no number</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (read level)\"><a href=\"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31638795/\">DOI 10.1021/acs.jctc.9b00692</a> (abstract only)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">moderate</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\">On-the-fly GPR surrogate for massive NEB (GPR_calculator)</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">Ab-initio calls inside NEB loops</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">3–10× acceleration vs pure ab-initio NEB (surface diffusion/reaction benchmarks)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">Uncertainty-gated fallback to ab initio</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (read level)\"><a href=\"https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.07319\">arXiv:2504.07319v2</a>; CPC 316, 109781 (2025) (abstract only)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">moderate</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\">Freezing string method + internal-coordinate interpolation</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">Full band optimization; only ~1 opt step per new node, nodes then frozen</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">~90 → ~39 total DFT gradient calls per TS search (conservative→aggressive, Baker set); ~50% cost cut vs prior FSM implementations; 100% success over 40+ reactions</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">FSM &quot;deviates significantly from the MEP&quot;; LST interpolation converges to wrong/2nd-order TS in 2/16 (conservative) and 7/24 (aggressive) Baker cases</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (read level)\"><a href=\"https://arxiv.org/html/2407.09763v2\">arXiv:2407.09763v2</a>; JCTC 2025 (full text)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">strong</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\">GNN-PES inside FSM growth</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">All DFT calls during string growth</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">72% fewer ab-initio calls: 28.9 vs 103.7 avg per TS (7 organic reactions, ωB97X/6-31G(d))</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">Pre-trained-only GNN fails 2/7 reactions (bad H–H/non-covalent chemistry); fine-tuning mandatory</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (read level)\"><a href=\"https://arxiv.org/html/2501.06159v2\">arXiv:2501.06159v2</a> (full text)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">moderate (small test set)</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\">Single-ended GSM (SE-GSM)</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">Need for product state; double-ended machinery</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">Claimed &quot;even more computationally efficient than the already rapid double-ended method&quot;; automated search found 165 reaction paths from 333 searches (NH₃BH₃ + (LiH)₄)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">Single-ended walks can find unintended chemistry; no per-call factor in abstract</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (read level)\"><a href=\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jcc.23833\">DOI 10.1002/jcc.23833</a>, JCC 36, 601 (2015) (abstract only)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">moderate</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\">GP-accelerated dimer (OT-GP / GPDimer)</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">~90% of electronic-structure calls in minimum-mode saddle search</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">Median 254 → 28 (OTGPD) / 30 (GPDimer) HF calls on 238 organic reactions (7–25 atoms); mean wall-time 12.6 min vs 23.7 (dimer) / 28.3 (GPDimer); OTGPD uniquely succeeds on 3.8–4.6% more systems</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">Unconstrained GP signal-variance explosion → unphysical configs, crashes electronic-structure code (documented failure cases); surrogate collapse can fragment molecules</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (read level)\"><a href=\"https://arxiv.org/html/2510.06030v1\">arXiv:2510.06030v1</a> (full text)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">strong</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\">ART nouveau (with interactive Lanczos + seeded starts, pARTn/r-ARTn)</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">Hessian cost (Lanczos with few force calls); unbiased searches</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">Lanczos eigenvector cost cut from 16 to &lt;10 (&lt;5 above inflection) force evals; 170 force calls avg per event (DFT, Al adatom on Al(100), 301 atoms); seeded r-ARTn: 50 force evals vs 463 unbiased (~9×)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">Random pushes oversample collective/soft modes; constrained pushes bias the event catalogue; unsuccessful events when relaxation drops below inflection</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (read level)\"><a href=\"https://iris.sissa.it/retrieve/da7d4c55-2fe6-406c-aa46-602f3eeb51db/ARTn_Comput_2022.pdf\">DOI 10.1016/j.commatsci.2022.111363</a> (full text)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">strong</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\">VC-DESW / DESW (double-ended surface walking, Liu group)</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">Iterative pathway optimization + Hessian; pseudopathway only</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">&quot;Much more efficient&quot; than G-SSNEB for solid phase-transition TS (SiO₂, TiO₂ examples); per-image force-eval counts tabulated vs NEB — [UNVERIFIED factor: table rendered as image, numbers not extractable this session]</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">Multi-TS pathways can yield a TS &quot;not directly connected to the structure pairs provided&quot;; pseudopath ≠ MEP</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (read level)\"><a href=\"http://www.lasphub.com/publication/102.pdf\">DOI 10.1021/acs.jctc.5b00641</a>, JCTC 11, 4885 (2015) (full text, table unreadable)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">moderate</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\">SSW + global NN potential (LASP)</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">First-principles cost in global PES exploration</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">G-NN ≥100× faster than PW-DFT at 28 atoms; ≥1000× at &gt;1000 atoms; CBD TS location ~50 energy/force evals from good guess</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">NN accuracy ~10 meV/atom, 0.2 eV/Å over global set; potential generation itself costs 1–2 weeks × 1000 cores per system</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (read level)\"><a href=\"http://www.lasphub.com/publication/132.pdf\">WIREs Comput. Mol. Sci. 2019, 9, e1415</a> (full text)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">strong (for the NN speed claim; TS-eval count is author guidance)</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\">Pre-trained GNN for dense NEB enumeration (CatTSunami, Meta FAIR)</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">DFT inside NEB entirely</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">28× speedup with 91% of TS energies within 0.1 eV of DFT (OC20NEB benchmark); 1500× for full reaction-network enumeration (174 reactions: 12 GPU-days vs ~52 GPU-years)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">9% of TSs &gt;0.1 eV off; model never trained on reactions — transferability claim, chemistry-dependent</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (read level)\"><a href=\"https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.02078\">arXiv:2405.02078v3</a> (abstract only)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">strong (large benchmark)</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\">REST2 (solute tempering)</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">Replicas wasted heating solvent</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">Trpcage: 10 replicas vs 48 for T-REMD; ≥9.6× total CPU speedup (4.8× replica count × ~2× per-replica CPU); exchange acceptance 30% vs 10%</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">[pre-2015 foundational] Artificial protein collapse at high effective T documented later (Zhang et al. 2023, abstract-level)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (read level)\"><a href=\"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3172817/\">DOI 10.1021/jp204407d</a> (full text); failure mode: <a href=\"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36791464/\">PMID 36791464</a> (abstract snippet)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">strong</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\">Non-reversible parallel tempering + optimized schedule</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">Wasted replicas/round-trips from geometric schedules + reversible swaps</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">Provable dominance of non-reversible over reversible PT; optimal annealing schedule; reversible PT can <em>deteriorate</em> when chains are added, non-reversible cannot</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">Gains are in round-trip rate/ESS, not a fixed &quot;× fewer replicas&quot; number; mostly demonstrated on statistical/inverse problems, not atomistic MD</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (read level)\"><a href=\"https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.02939\">arXiv:1905.02939v4</a>; JRSS B 84, 321 (2022) (abstract only)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">strong (theory), moderate (atomistic transfer)</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\">OPES vs WTMetaD</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">Convergence time of FES, esp. multi-dim/suboptimal CVs</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">&quot;Drastic improvement in convergence speed&quot; (main-text claim); explores 6-CV alanine tetrapeptide space &quot;much more efficiently&quot; than MetaD — [UNVERIFIED numeric factor in main text; SI not read]</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">Fast-converging bias ⇒ fewer transitions; FES estimate can look converged while basins are mis-weighted if CVs bad</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (read level)\"><a href=\"https://ar5iv.labs.arxiv.org/html/1909.07250\">arXiv:1909.07250v4</a>; JPCL 11, 2731 (2020) (full text)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">strong (replicated by community)</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\">OPES-explore</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">Exploration time across metastable states</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">~10× faster exploration than MetaD (alanine tetrapeptide, 8 basins); all methods ~100× slower with suboptimal CVs</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">Trades convergence accuracy for exploration; systematic ΔF error when unconverged</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (read level)\"><a href=\"https://ar5iv.labs.arxiv.org/html/2201.09950\">arXiv:2201.09950v1</a>; JCTC 18, 3988 (2022) (full text)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">strong</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\">OneOPES (OPES-explore + MultiCV + MultiThermal replica exchange)</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">CV-tuning effort + replica count vs PTMetaD</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">8 replicas; trypsin–benzamidine ΔF converged for all 5 runs by ~100 ns; PT-WTE-MetaD off-target even at 250 ns (needs 60% trajectory discarded); alanine dipeptide with bad CV (ψ): converged ~50 ns</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">Exploratory replicas bypass TS region: &quot;minima well reproduced, TS region unreliable&quot; (stated in paper)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (read level)\"><a href=\"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10500989/\">DOI 10.1021/acs.jctc.3c00254</a> (full text)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">strong</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\">Parallel-bias MetaD</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">Curse of dimensionality in CV space (partitioned biases)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">Claimed efficient sampling of high-dim FES (trp-cage) — [UNVERIFIED factor: only abstract snippet accessed]</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">More walkers/replicas to manage</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (read level)\"><a href=\"https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.jctc.5b00846\">DOI 10.1021/acs.jctc.5b00846</a> (abstract snippet only)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">claim</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\">GaMD</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">CV selection; boost potential without RC</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">Chignolin folded in 3×300 ns; T4-lysozyme binding in 1800 ns — no baseline factor in abstract [UNVERIFIED &quot;orders-of-magnitude&quot; claim often made elsewhere]</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">Reweighting noise (anharmonicity); boost distorts kinetics/TS</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (read level)\"><a href=\"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26300708/\">DOI 10.1021/acs.jctc.5b00436</a>, JCTC 11, 3584 (2015) (abstract only)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">moderate</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\">Reinforced dynamics (RiD) — Princeton + IAPCM Beijing</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">Precise CV selection; NN bias over many CVs</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">Demonstrated with 20 CVs (polyalanine-10, explicit solvent) where low-dim MetaD impractical — no factor in abstract</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">NN bias accuracy sets FES accuracy</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (read level)\"><a href=\"https://arxiv.org/abs/1712.03461\">arXiv:1712.03461v6</a>; JCP 148, 124113 (2018) (abstract only)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">moderate</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\">Enhanced-sampling-driven active learning (DEAL: OPES + GP + GNN)</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">DFT dataset size for reactive MLPs</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">~1,000 DFT calculations per reaction (ammonia decomposition on Fe–Co alloys)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">Uniform accuracy requires the two-stage GP→GNN scheme; misses rare channels outside explored CV space</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (read level)\"><a href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41524-024-01481-6\">DOI 10.1038/s41524-024-01481-6</a>, npj Comput. Mater. 10, 291 (2024) (abstract only, via ChemRxiv/plumID:24.035)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">strong</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\">CI-NEB image-count economics (baseline observation)</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">—</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">Classical NEB: &quot;several hundred function calls even for 10 images&quot;; function calls grow steeply (empirically ~exponentially per their Fig. 4) with image count; surrogate methods flatten this</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">Too few images → corner-cutting, convergence failure on complex landscapes (their Fig. 4 + cited Sheppard &amp; Henkelman)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (read level)\"><a href=\"https://ar5iv.labs.arxiv.org/html/1811.08022\">arXiv:1811.08022v1</a>, Fig. 4 (full text)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">strong</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody></table></div><h2 id=\"3-proven-vs-claimed\">3. Proven vs claimed</h2><p><strong>Replicated and trusted (multiple independent groups, public benchmarks):</strong></p>\n<ul>\n<li>GPR/surrogate acceleration of NEB and dimer searches: 5–25× (PRL 2019), ~9–10× on 238-molecule saddle benchmark (OT-GP 2025), 3–10× (GPR_calculator 2025). Three independent implementations agree on roughly an order of magnitude in true-evaluation count. The failure mode is also replicated: GP surrogates break on high-force/short-contact configs (Koistinen 2019 fix; OT-GP variance explosion).</li>\n<li>FSM/GSM family: gradient-call counts (~40–90 total per molecular TS) are consistently reported across Sharada/Birkholz/Baker sets by two groups (Head-Gordon lineage; Iowa/Sharada lineage), with the reliability–cost tradeoff quantified (aggressive settings fail via wrong-saddle convergence).</li>\n<li>OPES &gt; WTMetaD for convergence; OPES-explore ≳ 10× faster exploration: reproduced in OneOPES, DEAL, and many downstream applications; implemented in PLUMED with public repro inputs (PLUMED-NEST).</li>\n<li>REST2 replica-count reduction (10 vs 48) is a single-system number but the scaling argument (acceptance independent of solvent DoF) is analytical and has been re-derived/adopted widely (gREST, GROMACS, DESMOND). The artificial-collapse pathology at high effective T is documented by an independent 2023 study.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><strong>Single-paper claims to treat with care:</strong></p>\n<ul>\n<li>CatTSunami&#39;s 1500× on network enumeration is real but the relevant per-NEB figure is 28× with a 9% tail of &gt;0.1 eV errors — and it is one group&#39;s benchmark (OC20-derived).</li>\n<li>GNN-FSM&#39;s 72% is a 7-reaction test set.</li>\n<li>&quot;Order of magnitude fewer electronic structure calculations&quot; for FSM vs NEB-class methods is asserted with literature support in Marks et al.&#39;s introduction, not re-measured head-to-head in that paper.</li>\n<li>NRPT&#39;s dominance is proven for MCMC; quantified atomistic-MD savings from non-reversible swaps remain thin.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><strong>Marketing-adjacent / unverified here:</strong> GaMD &quot;orders of magnitude&quot; acceleration (not in the abstract I accessed); VC-DESW numeric factor vs G-SSNEB (table not extractable); original GP-NEB 2017 reduction factor; dimer-vs-NEB head-to-head force-call counts (Olsen 2004, Heyden 2005 — pre-window, not accessed this session) [all UNVERIFIED].</p>\n<h2 id=\"4-openings-for-lupine\">4. Openings for Lupine</h2><ol>\n<li><strong>Sparse anchors sit exactly where FSM/GSM already spend their budget.</strong> The measured cost profile of FSM is ~2 gradient calls per frontier node plus a 20–30-call local TS refinement. Lupine&#39;s 4–6-image sparse-anchor DFT around a uMLIP-predicted saddle is operationally identical to &quot;FSM growth on the ML potential + DFT only on the 2–4 nodes bracketing the extremum.&quot; GNN-FSM currently spends 28.9 DFT calls per search mostly in P-RFO refinement; theorem-gated anchor placement (e.g., enforcing Hessian signature / single-imaginary-mode constraints formalized in Lean) could cut that refinement further and, more importantly, <em>catch the known FSM failure mode</em> — convergence to second-order saddles or wrong TS (2/16 and 7/24 in Marks et al.) — which is precisely a violated-theorem condition (wrong number of negative curvatures).</li>\n<li><strong>Union anchors vs per-search surrogates.</strong> GPR-NEB and OT-GP build a fresh, non-transferable surrogate per search — the 5–25× factor resets every time. Lupine&#39;s union-anchor result (154 shared vs 558 naive evaluations across uMLIPs) is orthogonal and multiplicative: shared DFT anchors can serve as common high-fidelity training points for any per-search GP, and anchor agreement across models gives a free uncertainty estimator that GPR papers show is the key acquisition signal. Nobody in the GP-saddle literature pools evaluations across searches or models; that is unclaimed territory with a measured 72.4% baseline.</li>\n<li><strong>Fix the documented TS-region blind spot of fast exploration.</strong> OneOPES explicitly reports that exploratory replicas converge basin free energies while skipping/distorting the TS region, and OPES can look converged while mis-weighting basins under bad CVs. Lupine could run OPES/OneOPES on the uMLIP, then apply theorem-gated sparse DFT anchors <em>only at model-predicted barrier tops and at points where models disagree</em> — a targeted TS-region correction layer on top of a converged-but-wrong-there FES, rather than DEAL-style blanket active learning (~1,000 DFT calls/reaction). A natural metric: ΔF error at the barrier region per DFT call, against DEAL&#39;s per-reaction budget.</li>\n<li><strong>Image-count economics without a surrogate&#39;s extrapolation risk.</strong> The PRL 2019 Fig. 4 result — classical NEB cost grows steeply with images while surrogate cost is image-independent — argues for running dense-band NEB entirely on the uMLIP (dense images are free) and letting theorem gates select the 4–6 images that actually need DFT. This beats ML-NEB&#39;s sequential-acquisition protocol in wall-clock parallelism (all anchors evaluable simultaneously, unlike active-learning loops) and avoids the replicated GP failure mode of extrapolating into short-contact configurations, since anchors are chosen by physical-law violations, not GP variance.</li>\n</ol>\n<p><strong>Honesty note:</strong> this subdomain is not thin — it is one of the best-quantified corners of the compute-savings literature, with multiple independent groups (Stanford/SUNCAT, Iceland, Iowa, Fudan, IIT/ETH, Meta FAIR, Princeton+IAPCM) publishing head-to-head evaluation counts. The weakest cells in the table are flagged inline.</p>\n"}