{"id":"savings-electronic-surrogates","title":"Electronic-Structure Surrogates that Skip or Shorten the SCF Loop","subtitle":"Learned Hamiltonians, semi-empirical+ML hybrids, and ML kinetic-energy and exchange-correlation functionals.","category":"references","tags":["literature-review","savings-stack","scf","hamiltonian","surrogate"],"source":"articles/lit-review/savings-electronic-surrogates.md","lang":"en","words":2428,"readMinutes":11,"toc":[{"depth":2,"text":"1. Executive result","id":"1-executive-result"},{"depth":2,"text":"2. Savings table","id":"2-savings-table"},{"depth":2,"text":"3. Proven vs claimed","id":"3-proven-vs-claimed"},{"depth":2,"text":"4. Openings for Lupine","id":"4-openings-for-lupine"}],"html":"<blockquote>\n<p><strong>Provenance:</strong> explore agent <code>agent-18</code> (director-commissioned deep research, swarm of 7, 2026-07-21) — materialized verbatim, then editorially corrected only to replace the retracted union-anchor saving with the reproducible primary-record value (72.4%). Quantitative literature claims are as reported by the research agent from sources it accessed; see citations inline. Citation-verification pass pending before any external publication.</p>\n</blockquote>\n<h1 id=\"compute-savings-digest-electronic-structure-surrogates-that-skip-or-shorten-the-scf-loop\">Compute-Savings Digest: Electronic-Structure Surrogates that Skip or Shorten the SCF Loop</h1><p><em>Evidence cut: 2026-07-21. Every number below was read this session from the cited source; each entry is marked <strong>[FT]</strong> = full text read, <strong>[ABS]</strong> = abstract only, <strong>[SNIP]</strong> = verified via indexed abstract/snippet mirror. Paywalled journals were accessed via arXiv versions or abstract mirrors.</em></p>\n<h2 id=\"1-executive-result\">1. Executive result</h2><ul>\n<li><strong>Machine-learned Hamiltonians (DeepH line, THU; HamGNN, Fudan) eliminate 100% of SCF iterations at inference</strong>, replacing them with O(N) graph-network construction of the Hamiltonian matrix plus one diagonalization. Measured: <strong>10³× wall-time reduction on a MoS₂ 35×35 supercell</strong> (DeepH, [FT]), and a <strong>4,284-atom Si-dislocation Hamiltonian built in 36 s on 80 CPU cores</strong> (HamGNN, [FT]). Accuracy retained: meV-scale Hamiltonian MAE (0.12–3 meV), band structures and wavefunction-derived properties (optics, Berry-phase responses) essentially on top of DFT. This is the most mature &quot;skip the SCF&quot; technology, with independent implementations and shipping packages (DeepH-pack, ABACUS/HONPAS/OpenMX interfaces).</li>\n<li><strong>Semi-empirical+ML hybrids (OrbNet Denali, AIQM1) deliver the largest verified <em>chemistry</em> savings with error bars</strong>: AIQM1 optimized C₆₀ in <strong>14 s on 1 core vs 31 min on 32 cores at ωB97X-D4/def2-TZVPP (~4×10³× CPU-time)</strong> at 0.8 kcal/mol MAD vs CCSD(T)*/CBS [FT]; OrbNet Denali claims up to 10³× vs DFT with GMTKN55 WTMAD-2 = 9.84 kcal/mol [ABS]. These keep an SCF (a cheap NDDO/xTB one) — they <em>shorten</em>, not skip.</li>\n<li><strong>ML kinetic-energy functionals finally made orbital-free DFT work for molecules</strong>: M-OFDFT (Microsoft Research AI4Science, Beijing/Shanghai) reaches chemical accuracy on QM9/ethanol and a <strong>27.4× speedup on a 738-atom protein (0.45 h vs 12.3 h KSDFT)</strong>, with empirical scaling O(N^1.46) vs O(N^2.49) [FT]. For solids, NN-KEDFs (Imoto PRR 2021, O(N) on SiC [ABS]; Sun–Chen MPN-KEDF in ABACUS for 59 alloys [ABS]) are real but lower-profile.</li>\n<li><strong>ML exchange-correlation functionals buy accuracy per SCF-dollar, not SCF elimination</strong>: Skala (Microsoft) hits <strong>WTMAD-2 = 2.8 kcal/mol on GMTKN55 — better than all hybrids at semi-local cost</strong> [ABS]; CIDER delivers hybrid-level thermochemistry/band gaps &quot;at roughly the cost of semilocal functionals, significantly faster than hybrid DFT in plane-wave codes&quot; [ABS]; DeePKS gives HSE06-level band gaps of halide perovskites at GGA-like cost [ABS]. The cautionary tale: DM21 (Science 2021) fails SCF convergence on transition-metal complexes and oscillates in geometry optimization (independent 2024–2025 follow-ups).</li>\n<li><strong>Density prediction shortens rather than skips</strong>: ChargE3Net&#39;s predicted-density initialization cut <strong>26.7% of SCF iterations</strong> on unseen Materials-Project crystals [ABS]; MALA&#39;s LDOS surrogate gives up to <strong>10³× vs tractable DFT</strong> and enabled &gt;10,000-atom Be electronic structure [ABS]. This &quot;warm-start&quot; mode is the least glamorous but most directly composable saving in the whole subdomain.</li>\n</ul>\n<h2 id=\"2-savings-table\">2. Savings table</h2><div class=\"table-wrap\"><table><thead><tr>\n<th>Technique</th>\n<th>What cost it removes</th>\n<th>Measured savings factor (system/size context)</th>\n<th>Accuracy cost / failure mode</th>\n<th>Citation (access level)</th>\n<th>Evidence strength</th>\n</tr>\n</thead><tbody><tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\"><strong>DeepH</strong> (THU: Li, Wang, …, Duan, Xu)</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">Entire SCF loop; cubic-scaling DFT of target system</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\"><strong>10³×</strong> time reduction, MoS₂ 35×35 supercell; magic-angle TBG (11,164 atoms) computed, matching plane-wave benchmark</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">Hamiltonian MAE 2.1 meV (graphene), sub-meV on ≤10³-atom moiré; local-coordinate discontinuity limits MD; needs ~10²–10³ DFT training calculations per chemical environment</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (access level)\">Nat. Comput. Sci. 2, 367 (2022), <a href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43588-022-00265-6\">FT</a></td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\"><strong>strong</strong></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\"><strong>DeepH-2</strong> (ELCT architecture)</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">Same + fixes equivariance cost</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">10⁷-param DeepH-2 ≈ cost of 10⁶-param DeepH-E3; tensor-product scaling O(L³) vs O(L⁶)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">MAE 0.2 meV typical, <strong>0.12 meV</strong> monolayer graphene (≈ DFT numerical error)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (access level)\"><a href=\"https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.17015\">arXiv:2401.17015v1</a>, [FT]</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\"><strong>strong</strong> (arch.); moderate (universal claims)</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\"><strong>xDeepH / DeepH-E3 magnetic</strong> (THU)</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">SCF for magnetic superstructures</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">Enables skyrmion-scale spin-spiral/moiré-magnet calculations previously infeasible (no wall-time factor given in abstract)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">sub-meV Hamiltonian error on nanotube, spin-spiral, moiré magnets</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (access level)\"><a href=\"https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.10604\">arXiv:2211.10604v1</a> / Nat. Comput. Sci. 3, 321 (2023), [ABS]</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">moderate</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\"><strong>DeepH-hybrid</strong> (THU)</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">Hybrid-functional SCF (exact exchange) for large supercells</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">First hybrid-level flat-band study of magic-angle TBG (no factor in abstract)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">Learns hybrid H from small structures; accuracy stated as &quot;high&quot;</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (access level)\"><a href=\"https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.08221\">arXiv:2302.08221v1</a>, [ABS]</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">claim</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\"><strong>HamGNN</strong> (Fudan: Zhong, Yu, Su, Gong, Xiang)</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">Entire SCF loop; large-supercell DFT</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\"><strong>36 s</strong> to build Hamiltonian of 4,284-atom Si dislocation supercell (80-core Xeon node)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">QM9 H-MAE <strong>1.49 meV</strong>; C allotropes 1.55 meV; transfers to TBG (3.23 meV) trained only on bulk allotropes</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (access level)\">npj Comput. Mater. 9, 182 (2023), <a href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41524-023-01130-4\">FT</a></td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\"><strong>strong</strong></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\"><strong>Universal HamGNN</strong> (Fudan)</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">Per-system retraining</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">One model for whole periodic table; high-throughput band-gap screening over Materials Project</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">Trained on &quot;nearly all&quot; MP crystal Hamiltonians; accuracy degrades vs per-system models</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (access level)\"><a href=\"https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.09251\">arXiv:2402.09251</a> / Chin. Phys. Lett. 41, 077103 (2024), [ABS]</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">claim</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\"><strong>PhiSNet</strong> (Unke, Bogojeski, …, Smidt, Müller)</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">Ab initio wavefunction/density computation (molecules)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\"><strong>&gt;10³× speedup</strong> vs ab initio reference; prediction errors 10²× below previous SOTA</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">Molecules only; no strict parity symmetry (HamGNN authors show this hurts solids); basis-set bound</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (access level)\"><a href=\"https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.02347\">arXiv:2106.02347v2</a> / NeurIPS 2021, [ABS]</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">strong (molecules)</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\"><strong>QHNet</strong> (Yu et al.)</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">92% of tensor products in equivariant Hamiltonian nets; 50% memory</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">Comparable accuracy to SOTA on MD17 at &quot;significantly faster speed&quot;</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">Engineering win, not an end-to-end DFT-skip benchmark</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (access level)\"><a href=\"https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.04922\">arXiv:2306.04922v2</a> / ICML 2023, [ABS]</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">moderate</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\"><strong>OrbNet Denali</strong> (Entos/Caltech)</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">Full DFT SCF, replaced by one cheap xTB evaluation + NN</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\"><strong>Up to 10³×</strong> vs DFT</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">GMTKN55 WTMAD-1/2 = 7.19/9.84 kcal/mol; torsions MAE 0.12 kcal/mol; organic/bio elements only</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (access level)\"><a href=\"https://arxiv.org/abs/2107.00299\">arXiv:2107.00299v2</a> / J. Chem. Phys. 155, 204103 (2021), [ABS]</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">strong</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\"><strong>AIQM1</strong> (Dral group, Xiamen/Germany)</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">DFT/CCSD(T) SCF → NDDO semiempirical SCF + NN Δ-correction</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">C₆₀ geometry opt: <strong>14 s (1 core) vs 31 min (32 cores)</strong> ≈ 4×10³× CPU-time; MRCI excitations <strong>10³×</strong> vs TD-DFT</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">0.8 kcal/mol MAD vs CCSD(T)*/CBS; fails underrepresented chemistry (H₂ error −2.9 kcal/mol); CHNO closed-shell only</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (access level)\">Nat. Commun. 12, 7022 (2021), <a href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-27340-2\">FT</a></td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\"><strong>strong</strong></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\"><strong>ChargE3Net</strong> (MIT Lincoln Lab)</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">SCF iterations via density warm-start; or non-SCF property evaluation</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\"><strong>26.7% fewer SCF iterations</strong> on unseen Materials-Project crystals; non-self-consistent runs give near-DFT electronic/thermodynamic properties</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">Density-only; energies need a functional evaluation on the density; trained on 100K+ MP structures</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (access level)\"><a href=\"https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.05388\">arXiv:2312.05388v2</a>, [ABS]</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">moderate (single group, but concrete metric)</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\"><strong>MALA LDOS surrogate</strong> (HZDR/CASUS + Sandia)</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">KS diagonalization &amp; SCF for metallic/high-T systems</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\"><strong>Up to 10³×</strong> vs tractable DFT; &gt;10,000-atom Be electronic structure (press: ~5 min on 150 CPUs)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">Best for metals/warm dense matter; transfer across chemistries limited</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (access level)\">npj Comput. Mater. 9, 115 (2023) via <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41524-023-01070-z\">DOI 10.1038/s41524-023-01070-z</a>, [ABS]</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">strong</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\"><strong>Ellis et al. finite-T KS-NN</strong> (Sandia/HZDR)</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">Finite-temperature SCF (the expensive regime)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">KS-DFT free energies &quot;to within chemical accuracy at negligible computational cost&quot;</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">Finite-T metallic systems (Al); LDOS-based</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (access level)\"><a href=\"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2010.04905\">arXiv:2010.04905</a> / Phys. Rev. B 104, 035120 (2021), [SNIP]</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">moderate</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\"><strong>Rackers et al. e3nn density</strong> (LANL)</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">KS solve for density of 10³–10⁴-atom systems</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">Density of systems of thousands of atoms &quot;with quantum accuracy,&quot; trained on small systems</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">Density only (no direct forces); molecules</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (access level)\"><a href=\"https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.03726\">arXiv:2201.03726v2</a> / Mach. Learn.: Sci. Technol. 4, 015027 (2023), [ABS]</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">moderate</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\"><strong>DeePKS</strong> (DP Tech/AISI + Princeton: Chen, Zhang, Wang, E)</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">Cost gap between GGA and hybrid/CC-level functionals</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">Chemically accurate energy/force/dipole/density for large molecule classes at GGA-level SCF cost</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">Self-consistent ML functional; accuracy tied to training coverage</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (access level)\"><a href=\"https://arxiv.org/abs/2008.00167\">arXiv:2008.00167v2</a> / JCTC 17, 170 (2021), [ABS]</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">strong</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\"><strong>DeePKS-perovskite</strong> (Ou, Tuo, …, Zhang)</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">HSE06 SCF for perovskite panel</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">HSE06-accuracy forces/band gaps/DOS at &quot;efficiency comparable to GGA&quot; across ABX₃ family</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">Element-family-specific model; SOC handled a posteriori</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (access level)\"><a href=\"https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.14486\">arXiv:2306.14486v1</a> / J. Phys. Chem. C 127 (2023), [ABS]</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">moderate</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\"><strong>NeuralXC</strong> (Dick, Fernandez-Serra; Stony Brook)</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">Accuracy gap baseline→high-level method at baseline cost</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">Water functional reaching beyond-baseline accuracy &quot;while maintaining efficiency&quot;</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">Water-centric demo; SCF still required</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (access level)\">Nat. Commun. 11, 3509 (2020), <a href=\"https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-17265-7\">SNIP</a></td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">moderate</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\"><strong>DM21</strong> (DeepMind)</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">(Accuracy side, not speed) fractional-charge/spin pathologies</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">—</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">GMTKN55 MoM better than best hybrids, near double-hybrid; <strong>fails SCF convergence on TMCs</strong> (Zhao, PCCP 2024, <a href=\"https://pubs.rsc.org/fr-ca/content/articlelanding/2024/cp/d4cp00878b\">SNIP</a>); oscillatory potential in geometry optimization (<a href=\"https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.12149\">arXiv:2501.12149v1</a>, [ABS])</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (access level)\">Science 374, 1385 (2021), DOI 10.1126/science.abj6511, <a href=\"https://gwern.net/doc/ai/nn/2021-kirkpatrick.pdf\">FT-partial via PDF</a></td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">strong (both directions)</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\"><strong>Nagai NN-XC w/ asymptotic constraints</strong> (U Tokyo)</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">Accuracy gap at meta-GGA-like cost</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">Outperforms existing functionals incl. on out-of-training materials; CCSD(T) itself at 3.5 kcal/mol MAE on comparable benchmark</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">Small-molecule thermochemistry focus</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (access level)\"><a href=\"https://arxiv.org/abs/2111.15593\">arXiv:2111.15593v2</a> / Phys. Rev. Research 4, 013106 (2022), [ABS]</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">moderate</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\"><strong>CIDER nonlocal exchange</strong> (Kozinsky group, Harvard)</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">Exact-exchange (hybrid) cost in plane-wave codes</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">Hybrid-DFT thermochemistry accuracy and improved band gaps &quot;at roughly semilocal cost, significantly faster than hybrid DFT in plane-wave codes&quot;; Si charged-defect levels in large supercells</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">GP model; needs feature engineering; solid-state adoption still thin</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (access level)\"><a href=\"https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.00682\">arXiv:2303.00682v4</a> / Phys. Rev. B 110, 075130 (2024), [ABS]</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">strong</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\"><strong>Skala</strong> (Microsoft Research AI4Science)</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">Hybrid-level accuracy at semi-local evaluation cost</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\"><strong>WTMAD-2 = 2.8 kcal/mol on GMTKN55</strong> (beats all hybrids) &quot;at cost of semi-local DFT&quot;</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">Main-group chemistry; very new, no independent replication; ~385K-param NN per grid point overhead vs analytic functionals</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (access level)\"><a href=\"https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/arXiv:2506.14665\">arXiv:2506.14665v1</a>, [ABS]</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">claim (strong internal evidence)</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\"><strong>Kohn–Sham regularizer (KSR/sKSR)</strong> (Google + UCI Burke)</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">Differentiability-driven functional training (accuracy side)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">Nonlocal sKSR functional: 2.7 mH MAE on test 1D systems, best ML-functional generalization reported</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">1D model systems only; not production DFT</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (access level)\">PRL 126, 036401 (2021) [SNIP]; <a href=\"https://arxiv.org/abs/2110.14846\">arXiv:2110.14846v4</a> / JPCL 13, 2540 (2022), [ABS]</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">moderate (methodology), weak (production)</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\"><strong>Brockherde ML-HK map</strong> (FU Berlin/Burke/Müller)</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">KS equations entirely (potential→density map)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">Conformer energies to 0.37 kcal/mol (benzene MD frames); stable ML-driven malonaldehyde MD</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">Proof-of-concept molecules; per-system training</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (access level)\">Nat. Commun. 8, 872 (2017), <a href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-00839-3\">FT</a></td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">moderate (historic)</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\"><strong>Imoto NN-KEDF</strong> (U Tokyo)</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">Orbital optimization; O(N³) → O(N)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">O(N) scaling demonstrated on SiC; accurate structure for 24 systems (atoms→metals→semiconductors→ionic)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">Simple/materials-like systems; functional-derivative training needed</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (access level)\"><a href=\"https://arxiv.org/abs/2109.01501\">arXiv:2109.01501v1</a> / Phys. Rev. Research 3, 033198 (2021), [ABS]</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">moderate</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\"><strong>M-OFDFT</strong> (MSR AI4Science Beijing/Shanghai + XJTU)</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">Orbital optimization in molecules — OF-DFT that finally works for molecules</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\"><strong>27.4× speedup on protein B (738 atoms, 2,750 e⁻: 0.45 h vs 12.3 h)</strong>; 6.7× on QMugs; O(N^1.46) vs O(N^2.49)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">Chemical accuracy (QM9 0.93 kcal/mol, ethanol 0.18); 10²× better than classical KEDFs; extrapolates to 10× training size; light elements, near-equilibrium, neutral systems only</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (access level)\"><a href=\"https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.16578\">arXiv:2309.16578v2</a>, [FT]</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">strong (single group)</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\"><strong>KineticNet</strong> (Remme, …, Dreuw, Hamprecht; Heidelberg)</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">Orbital optimization (molecular OF-DFT)</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">First chemically accurate learned KEDF across densities/geometries of tiny molecules; 2-e⁻ density optimization converged</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">Tiny molecules only</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (access level)\"><a href=\"https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.13316\">arXiv:2305.13316</a> / J. Chem. Phys. 159, 144113 (2023), [ABS]</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">moderate</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-label=\"Technique\"><strong>MPN-KEDF</strong> (Sun &amp; Chen, ABACUS team)</td>\n<td data-label=\"What cost it removes\">Orbital optimization for metals/alloys</td>\n<td data-label=\"Measured savings factor (system/size context)\">Systematically tested on Li, Mg, Al + <strong>59 alloys</strong> with 3 exact constraints imposed</td>\n<td data-label=\"Accuracy cost / failure mode\">Simple metals/alloys only; molecules out of reach</td>\n<td data-label=\"Citation (access level)\"><a href=\"https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.15591\">arXiv:2310.15591v2</a>, [ABS]</td>\n<td data-label=\"Evidence strength\">moderate</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody></table></div><h2 id=\"3-proven-vs-claimed\">3. Proven vs claimed</h2><p><strong>Replicated and trusted.</strong></p>\n<ul>\n<li>The <strong>DeepH architecture line</strong> is the most independently corroborated: THU&#39;s own series (2022 → DeepH-E3 → DeepH-2 → DeepH-Zero, the variational/unsupervised variant, <a href=\"https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.11287\">arXiv:2403.11287v3</a> [ABS]) is now embedded in ABACUS, OpenMX, SIESTA, FHI-aims and HONPAS (10⁴-atom hybrid-functional study, Digital Discovery 2025, cited in DeepH-pack <a href=\"https://arxiv.org/html/2601.02938v1\">SNIP</a>); third parties publish DeepH-E3 applications (e.g., GaAs defect thermal behavior, <a href=\"https://arxiv.org/html/2511.18398v1\">arXiv:2511.18398</a> [SNIP]). Accuracy numbers (meV-scale) have been reproduced by competitors (HamGNN&#39;s Table 1 cross-compares DeepH and PhiSNet on identical splits, [FT]).</li>\n<li><strong>AIQM1</strong> has independent re-benchmarks (e.g., barrier heights, J. Chem. Phys. 158, 074103 (2023), seen in citation record [SNIP]) and ships in MLatom/Sparrow. <strong>OrbNet Denali</strong>&#39;s GMTKN55 numbers are on public benchmarks. <strong>CIDER</strong> functionals are released (CiderPressLite) and used outside the Kozinsky group.</li>\n<li><strong>ML density prediction for warm dense matter</strong> (MALA line) is a multi-institution, multi-paper program with open software.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><strong>Single-paper / single-group claims.</strong></p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>M-OFDFT</strong>&#39;s 27.4× protein speedup and size-extrapolation are internally well-documented but un-replicated; same for <strong>Skala</strong>&#39;s 2.8 kcal/mol GMTKN55 (both from Microsoft Research AI4Science — technically excellent, institutionally concentrated).</li>\n<li><strong>Universal Hamiltonian models</strong> (universal HamGNN; universal DeepH, <a href=\"https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.10536\">arXiv:2406.10536v1</a> [ABS]) show Materials-Project-scale training, but universal-model accuracy is visibly below per-system models and no third party has stress-tested them.</li>\n<li><strong>ChargE3Net</strong>&#39;s 26.7% SCF-iteration cut is a single-group MIT LL result (albeit a concrete, reproducible metric).</li>\n<li><strong>QHNet/TraceGrad-class</strong> architecture papers report efficiency on their own splits only.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><strong>Marketing / caution flags.</strong></p>\n<ul>\n<li>&quot;Orders of magnitude&quot; Hamiltonian-surrogate speedups always compare <em>inference</em> against full SCF DFT, quietly amortizing the 10²–10³ DFT calculations needed for training data. Fair framing: savings exist when many structures/properties are computed per chemistry.</li>\n<li><strong>DM21</strong> is the canonical lesson: Science-level headline (GMTKN55 near double-hybrid quality), then independent work found SCF-convergence failures on ~transition-metal chemistry (Zhao et al., PCCP 2024) and oscillatory XC potentials breaking geometry optimization (Ryabov, 2025). Any NN-functional without convergence guarantees should be treated as unproven for production.</li>\n<li>Orbital-free ML-KEDFs before M-OFDFT (2017–2022 wave: Brockherde, Ryczko, Meyer) were honestly framed proofs of concept; claims of generality in press coverage exceeded the papers.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><strong>Honest scope note.</strong> The subdomain is <em>not</em> thin — it is one of the densest in computational chemistry — but the &quot;fraction of DFT wall-time eliminated&quot; is only crisply measured for Hamiltonian surrogates (10³× inference), semi-empirical+ML hybrids (10³–10⁴×), M-OFDFT (27× at protein scale), and MALA (10³×). ML-XC papers mostly measure <em>accuracy-per-rung</em>, not wall time; their speed claims are qualitative (&quot;significantly faster than hybrid&quot;). I could not verify any published wall-time factor for Nagai&#39;s functional [UNVERIFIED: PRR article paywalled, abstract gives accuracy only] and DeepH-hybrid&#39;s speedup factor [UNVERIFIED: arXiv abstract qualitative; full text not fetched].</p>\n<h2 id=\"4-openings-for-lupine\">4. Openings for Lupine</h2><ol>\n<li><strong>Hamiltonian surrogates don&#39;t give forces; Lupine does.</strong> DeepH/HamGNN produce band structures and response properties, but total energies/forces from a predicted Hamiltonian are not variationally reliable for MD or NEB — which is exactly Lupine&#39;s home turf (uMLIP + theorem-gated sparse-anchor DFT). The clean combination: use a DeepH/HamGNN-predicted Hamiltonian (or ChargE3Net-density: measured 26.7% SCF-iteration cut) as the <strong>SCF warm start at each sparse anchor</strong>. Union anchors already share DFT evaluations across models; adding surrogate warm starts compounds 72.4% fewer DFT calls with ~25%+ fewer iterations per call. Nobody has benchmarked &quot;surrogate warm start × sparse-anchor NEB&quot; — an obvious, cheap win.</li>\n<li><strong>Theorem-gating is the missing piece for ML functionals.</strong> DeePKS/CIDER/Skala raise accuracy per SCF dollar but are trusted blindly inside their SCF; DM21 showed NN functionals fail catastrophically and silently (TMC convergence, geometry oscillations). Lupine&#39;s physical-law theorem checks (e.g., fractional-charge/spin consistency, size-consistency, virial/force–energy consistency along a path) are precisely the runtime certification these functionals lack. A &quot;Skala-inside, Lupine-gated, sparse-anchored&quot; stack targets hybrid-level accuracy at semilocal cost <em>with</em> formal failure detection — a stronger story than any of the three alone.</li>\n<li><strong>Density mismatch as a union-anchor detector.</strong> Union anchors currently key on agreement of model-predicted extrema in energy space. MALA/Rackers-class density surrogates offer a cheap electronic-level discriminator: where two uMLIPs agree geometrically but predicted densities/Hamiltonians diverge beyond a theorem-set tolerance, promote that structure to a DFT anchor. This converts union anchoring from geometry-driven to physics-driven, and the surrogates cost milliseconds.</li>\n<li><strong>Orbital-free partitioning at the large end.</strong> M-OFDFT&#39;s verified regime (light elements, near-equilibrium, neutral; 27× at ~700 atoms) is complementary to Lupine&#39;s verified regime (reactive paths, barriers). For very large systems (biomolecular, electrochemical interfaces), an OF-surrogate background + Lupine-corrected uMLIP reactive region, with anchors placed where theorems flag the boundary, attacks the regime where even 10³× Hamiltonian surrogates fail (they need converged reference data at the target chemistry, which Lupine&#39;s sparse anchors generate on the fly).</li>\n</ol>\n<hr>\n<p><em>Source count: 31 primary sources accessed this session (13 full-text or partial full-text, 15 abstract, 3 verified snippets/mirrors). All quantitative claims above trace to these; unverified items are explicitly flagged.</em></p>\n"}